Sarah? She’s running, and she’s going to WIN!

There’s a joke that’s been around for ages about a political candidate the media hates.  It has a lot of variations, but the punchline is usually the same.  In this case, it would go something like, if Sarah were to walk across the waters of the Sea of Galilee, the media would triumphantly  proclaim “SARAH CAN’T SWIM!!!”

Look for clues, people! Sarah doesn’t have negative poll numbers because she’s doing things wrong.  She has negative numbers because the MSM is doing everything in their power to drive them down.  Similarly, Obama’s media numbers are not high because he’s doing things right, they’re high because the MSM is doing everything they can to inflate them and to provide cover for him by ignoring or downplaying his mistakes.

Exempli gratia, Obama’s recent goof signing the wrong year in the guest book at Westminster Abbey:

Now, if Sarah had made a goof like that, it would be MSM fodder for weeks.  They would be calling it a defining moment, and it would stick to her much like Dan Quayle’s “potatoe” gaffe.   But since it was Obama’s dumb mistake, there were a few nervous chuckles, a couple of minor stories, and then everyone was told to forget it and “move on…”

All this, I have seen before.

The very first political campaign I followed closely was the 1976 campaign, specifically the battle between Ronald Reagan and Jerry Ford for the Republican nomination.  I was strongly impressed with Reagan back then, even though he was dismissed universally as “a B-rated actor“, a Nazi, a senile old dork, a dunce, a dunderhead, blah, blah, blah — and these were comments coming from Republicans.

In contrast, Ford was portrayed as a sober, senior, reasonable and hardworking leader.  Someone who when Congress inside and out (due to his numerous years of perpetual reelection in one of the safest districts in the nation) — plus he had the advantage  of incumbency.  Well, what happened?  Ford received the nomination and was waxed in the general, giving us four years of Jimmy Carter.

Dog days, my friends.  Dog days indeed…

Fast forward to 1999, where Carter was making a hash of things every bit as badly as Obama is doing now, and look at the contenders for the Republican nomination.  One, Mr. Preppy himself, George H.W. Bush and that old amiable, cuddly, lovable broken down B-actor, Ronald Wilson Reagan.

I was there.  I watched a Bush speech and felt immediate unease.  He was saying some good things, but ultimately, he just didn’t seem to be connecting to anyone.  He was, just so… colorless — perfect teeth, perfect suits, perfect prissy mannerism… but not much else.

Then I heard Reagan speak and it was a total different world.  He connected.  He talked to me. There was no question about who I was going to support.  Even though everyone who could find themselves a TV camera to pontificate in knew that he didn’t have a prayer in Hell of winning the nomination, and if he did, he was going to hand Carter reelection on a silver platter.

Go back and look at the news of the era if you have to.  Take an afternoon on a Saturday, visit the newspaper archives and read the stories.  Don’t just depend on the online resources; they don’t give the big picture.  The fact of the matter was, Bush felt entitled to the Republican nomination and campaigned that way.  His attacks on Reagan ranged from petulant to scurrilous, and always with the condescending subtext, “only an idiot would vote for Reagan”.

Now, the media then are playing exactly the same game they are playing now.  They wanted Bush to get the nomination because they were sure he would be easier for Carter to beat – so they talked him up big time.  Everything from his (admittedly heroic) service in World War II, to his tenure as the head of the CIA was painted in pretty colors, all while they were sharpening their knives to stick in his back after he was safely nominated.

Reagan?  He scared the holy living piss out of the media.  They tried to ignore him, but the crowds kept getting bigger.  They tried laughing at him, but the crowds kept getting bigger.  They tried lying about him, but the crowds kept growing.  Towards the end of the primary season a very visibly frustrated Bush lashed out with a genuine blood libel against Reagan – sneering at Reaganomics as Jonestown Economics”, as if the affects of a Reagan win would be the equivalent of forcing Americans to drink poisoned Kool-Aid.

None of it worked.  Let me say that again.  None. Of. It. Worked.

Reagan handily defeated Bush for the nomination, and showed true magnanimity by choosing Bush as his running mate.

At this point, the MSM went into full screeching frantic overdrive.  Everything except the kitchen sink, was thrown at Reagan.  All of the lies, all of the slurs, all of the fear-mongering you could possible imagine.  He’s a warmonger! He’s stupid! He’s senile!  Every single tiny gaffe, or anything that could be twisted into a gaffe, was splashed over every printed surface that could be found.

And the polls?  In the months running up to November 2000, Carter was shown beating Reagan by every single respectable measure.  His candidacy was a joke, HE was a joke, it was Bedtime for Ronzo and time to put this aging cranky half-dead nobody back out to pasture.  Day in and day out – every single day.

And again – I Was There!  I was in the Navy at the time, and couldn’t legally be an active member of his campaign so I hung around the local campaign headquarters whenever I could and did little odd jobs.  Stuffing envelopes sucks and it’s one of those jobs that nobody wants to do, but I was glad to help, even if I was the only guy at the table and if most of the ladies that were helping were in their sixties.  It was still fun.

And you know something else?  I wasn’t the only guy helping like that.  Almost every evening, there would be people wandering in looking for more yard signs and/or bumper stickers and flyers, sometimes just to drop off a check and wander around in the campaign headquarters and feel the excitement.  It was magical.

But I have to tell you, I was nervous as heck as the election approached.  The grannies at the envelope table kept teasing me for being a sourpuss and telling me to ignore the polls.  It was going to be a blowout.  There was no way Reagan could lose.  But the press kept up the negative coverage, giving ground only reluctantly, downplaying his campaign stops, trying every trick they could to make the crowds seem smaller.

Election day?  The grudging story, the one they held onto as long and as frantically as possible, was that it was “too close to call”. Which meant two things; the media was not believing the numbers they were reading, and they absolutely hated reading them.  As the results started coming in, showing state after state after state coming solidly down on the Republican side, the media talking heads became increasingly despondent and incoherent.

God, it was beautiful.

Now, you don’t have to be a rocket scientist to see where I am going with this.  Sarah, because of who she is, what she is, and the way she connects so naturally with average Americans, is in true and undeniable reality – the second coming of Ronald Wilson Reagan.  That’s the way the media elites see her, that’s the way the RINOs see her, and that’s the way the average American voter sees her, or will come to see her.

Continuing that thought, Mitt Romney is the standard issue, pump-him-up-knock-him-down generic RINO that the media absolutely LOVES to foist onto the Republican Party – smugly confident that if the Republicans do nominate him; they (the media) have plenty of poisoned knives to kill him with in the general election. And they’re going to love doing it – if they get the chance, that is.

So, what’s my bottom line?  I’ll tell you right now what my prediction is.  I believe strongly that Sarah Palin is going to run.  I believe that she is going to win the nomination despite everything that has been and will be thrown at her.  I believe she might even take another page out of Reagan’s book and ask Mitt to be her running mate.

Then, on a fine day in November 2012, the American people are going to elect the first woman President of the United States.

I’d bet money on it.  In fact, I already have.


About Tokyo Tengu

I'm a 58-year-old lovable fuzzball that enjoys spending time (when not working) reading and writing political commentary, enjoying good books, cooking, eating and bashing stupidity whenever and wherever I find it. (Not that I have to look very hard these days.) Despite being a long-term (25 years) resident of Tokyo, I am an unashamed and unabashedly Pro-Life American Conservative with an intense interest in the politics of the day -- in Japan, the United States and throughout Asia. My writings here and in other places focus primarily on how things are seen from Japan and around Asia, with special emphasis on Japanese national, political and defense issues, US Forces in Japan and Asia, and the burgeoning military power of China.
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